CARBONICA 🌍 — Documentation

🌍 Overview

First unified framework for planetary carbon accounting

"Weighing the Breath of the Earth."

CARBONICA is a physically rigorous eight-parameter framework for real-time quantification of global carbon cycle dynamics, natural sink capacity, and the critical threshold at which Earth's self-regulating biogeochemical systems approach saturation. The framework integrates eight governing parameters into the Planetary Carbon Saturation Index (PCSI).

0.78

PCSI 2025

Up from 0.31 in 1960

0.947

r² vs Keeling

65-year validation

1.71

F_perma

PgC/yr · 4.3% emissions

12.4

Revelle Factor

36% buffer loss

65

Years

1960-2025 baseline

8

Parameters

Integrated framework

📄 Research Paper

Nature Climate Change (Springer Nature)

CARBONICA Research Paper

Submitted to Nature Climate Change · March 13, 2026

Title: CARBONICA: Advanced Planetary Carbon Accounting & Feedback Dynamics — A Multi-Parameter Earth System Science Framework for Real-Time Quantification of Global Carbon Cycle Dynamics, Sink Saturation, and Planetary Self-Regulation Thresholds
Author: Samir Baladi
Affiliation: Ronin Institute / Rite of Renaissance
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18995446
License: MIT License
Status: Under review
Keywords: global carbon cycle, carbon budget, net primary productivity, oceanic carbon sink, permafrost thaw flux, Revelle factor, air-sea gas exchange, photosynthetic quantum yield, carbon residence time, Earth system science

📊 Key Results

Validation performance metrics

0.947

r² vs Keeling

65-year validation

36%

Buffer Loss

Revelle Factor 9.1→12.4

35x

F_perma Increase

1990→2025

−0.9%

Φ_q Decline

Per decade (global)

2047-53

Critical Year

SSP3-7.0 projection

15-25

PgC Budget

Smaller vs AR6

🔬 Eight Parameters

Physical framework

Parameter	Symbol	Weight	Description
Net Primary Productivity	NPP	0.16	Terrestrial photosynthetic carbon uptake
Oceanic Carbon Sink	S_ocean	0.18	Air-sea CO₂ exchange
Atmospheric CO₂ Growth	G_atm	0.20	Highest weight — source-sink imbalance
Permafrost Thaw Flux	F_perma	0.19	Frozen carbon reserve release
Buffer Capacity	β	0.12	Revelle Factor inverse
Soil Residence Time	τ_soil	0.07	Terrestrial reservoir stability
Anthropogenic Emission	E_anth	0.05	Human perturbation term
Quantum Yield	Φ_q	0.03	Photosynthetic efficiency

📈 Planetary Carbon Saturation Index

Composite index

// Planetary Carbon Saturation Index // CARBONICA Composite Formula PCSI = 0.20 · G_atm* // Atmospheric CO₂ Growth Rate + 0.19 · F_perma* // Permafrost Thaw Flux + 0.18 · S_ocean* // Oceanic Carbon Sink + 0.16 · NPP* // Net Primary Productivity + 0.12 · β* // Buffer Capacity + 0.07 · τ_soil* // Soil Residence Time + 0.05 · E_anth* // Anthropogenic Emission + 0.03 · Φ_q* // Quantum Yield // All parameters normalized to [0, 1] using 65-year reference dataset // G_atm and F_perma carry highest weights — strongest positive feedback character // Weights sum to 1.0 (PCA-derived from 1960-2000 training period)

≥0.80

CRITICAL

Self-reinforcing feedbacks emerging

0.55-0.79

TRANSITIONAL

Sink weakening detectable

<0.55

STABLE

Sinks dominating

⚠️ PCSI Thresholds

Three-level alert framework

Level	PCSI Range	Description	Action
🟢 STABLE	<0.55	Sinks dominating, stable carbon cycle	Routine monitoring
🟡 TRANSITIONAL	0.55-0.79	Sink weakening detectable	Enhanced monitoring
🔴 CRITICAL	≥0.80	Self-reinforcing feedbacks emerging	Immediate attention

📦 Installation

Quick setup

# Install from PyPI pip install carbonica # Clone repository git clone https://github.com/gitdeeper9/carbonica.git cd carbonica # Install with pip pip install -r requirements.txt pip install -e . # Or using Docker docker-compose up -d # Verify installation python -c "import carbonica; print(carbonica.__version__)"

🔧 API Reference

Python interface

CarbonBudget

Master dC_atm/dt integrator

from carbonica import CarbonBudget budget = CarbonBudget( baseline_year=1960, end_year=2025, data_dir="./data" ) budget.load_observations() params = budget.get_current_state(2025) print(params['G_atm']) # → 2.38 ppm/yr

OceanSinkModel

Air-sea CO₂ exchange & Revelle Factor

from carbonica.modules import OceanSinkModel ocean = OceanSinkModel(data_dir="./data") R = ocean.get_revelle_factor(2025) beta = ocean.get_buffer_capacity(2025) print(f"R = {R:.1f}, β = {beta:.3f}")

PermafrostEngine

Permafrost thaw flux calculations

from carbonica.modules import PermafrostEngine perma = PermafrostEngine(data_dir="./data") flux = perma.get_flux(2025) components = perma.separate_thaw_types(flux, 2025) print(f"Abrupt thaw: {components['abrupt']:.2f} PgC/yr")

QuantumYieldTracker

Photosynthetic quantum yield from SIF

from carbonica.modules import QuantumYieldTracker qyt = QuantumYieldTracker(data_dir="./data") phi_global = qyt.get_quantum_yield(2025) phi_amazon = qyt.get_quantum_yield(2025, 'amazon_tropical') print(f"Global: {phi_global:.4f}, Amazon: {phi_amazon:.4f}")

PCSI.compute()

Compute Planetary Carbon Saturation Index from eight parameters

from carbonica import PCSI pcsi = PCSI() params = { 'NPP': 58.3, 'S_ocean': -3.08, 'G_atm': 2.38, 'F_perma': 1.71, 'beta': 0.081, 'tau_soil': 27, 'E_anth': 11.2, 'Phi_q': 0.071 } result = pcsi.compute(params) print(f"PCSI = {result:.3f} ({pcsi.get_status(result)})")

📍 Case Studies

Field validation

🌳 Amazon

2018-2023

Sink → source, 20% Φ_q decline

❄️ Arctic

Permafrost

1.71 PgC/yr, 31% abrupt thaw

🌋 Mauna Loa

1960-2025

65-year baseline, r²=0.997

🌊 Revelle

Buffer Loss

2.5× acceleration, 36% loss

🔄 Permafrost

Feedback

4.3% global emissions

🌿 Φ_q

Decline

-0.9%/decade global

👤 Author

Principal investigator

🌍

Samir Baladi

Interdisciplinary AI Researcher — Earth System Science, Carbon Cycle Dynamics & Planetary Flux Modeling

Ronin Institute / Rite of Renaissance

Samir Baladi is an independent researcher affiliated with the Ronin Institute, developing the Rite of Renaissance interdisciplinary research program. CARBONICA is the third framework in a series of open‑source geophysical frameworks, following CORAL-CORE (coral reef systems), LITHO-SONIC (crustal stress), and INFRAS-CLOUD (atmospheric infrasound). The framework was validated against a 65-year observational baseline (1960–2025) spanning seven global datasets.

No conflicts of interest declared.

📧 gitdeeper@gmail.com 🔗 ORCID: 0009-0003-8903-0029 🐙 GitHub 🦊 GitLab

📝 Citation

How to cite

@software{baladi2026carbonica, author = {Baladi, Samir}, title = {CARBONICA: Advanced Planetary Carbon Accounting \& Feedback Dynamics}, year = {2026}, version = {1.0.0}, doi = {10.5281/zenodo.18995446}, url = {https://github.com/gitdeeper9/carbonica}, license = {MIT} }

"Carbon is the chemical backbone of life and the primary radiative forcing agent of Earth's climate. At PCSI = 0.78, the planet's self-regulating carbon systems are approaching a threshold from which return becomes uncertain. CARBONICA makes it measurable."

CARBON-ICA