Carbon Accounting & Regulatory Budget Observatory

CARBONICA

A physically rigorous eight-parameter Earth system framework for real-time quantification of global carbon cycle dynamics, natural sink capacity, and the critical threshold at which planetary self-regulation approaches irreversible saturation.

📊 Live Dashboard 📄 Research Paper pip install carbonica

0.78

PCSI · 2025

🟡 Transitional Stress Zone

Overview

Weighing the Breath
of the Earth

Carbon is the molecular backbone of life and the primary radiative forcing agent of Earth's climate. Atmospheric CO₂ is rising at 2.4 ppm/year — approximately 24,000× faster than during typical interglacial periods.

Every natural carbon sink on Earth is showing signs of stress, saturation, or reversal. CARBONICA integrates all eight governing parameters into a single composite metric: the Planetary Carbon Saturation Index (PCSI).

from carbonica import CarbonBudget

from carbonica.pcsi import PCSI

# Load 65-year observational baseline

budget = CarbonBudget(

  baseline_year=1960,

  end_year=2025

)

budget.load_observations()

# Compute current PCSI

index = PCSI(budget)

print(index.current)

# → 0.780 — Transitional stress zone

# Run SSP3-7.0 projection

proj = index.project(

  scenario="SSP3-7.0",

  end_year=2070,

  n_ensemble=10000

)

print(proj.threshold_year(0.90))

# → 2047–2053

The Eight Parameters

Every dimension of
Earth's carbon identity

Eight physically independent parameters, each capturing a distinct aspect of global carbon cycle dynamics across oceanic, terrestrial, and atmospheric subsystems.

NPP · w₁ = 0.16

Net Primary Productivity

Terrestrial photosynthetic carbon uptake. Global Φ_q declining at −0.9%/decade, with tropical ecosystems at −2.1%/decade.

Critical: < 52.0 PgC/yr

S_ocean · w₂ = 0.18

Oceanic Carbon Sink Strength

Air-sea CO₂ exchange. Revelle Factor risen from 9.1 (pre-industrial) to 12.4 (2025) — 36% reduction in buffer capacity.

Alarm: < −1.5 PgC/yr

G_atm · w₃ = 0.20

Atmospheric CO₂ Growth Rate

Net source-sink imbalance. Rising at 2.4 ppm/year — approximately 24,000× faster than during typical interglacial periods.

Critical: ≥ 3.5 ppm/yr

F_perma · w₄ = 0.19

Permafrost Thaw Flux

Frozen carbon reserve release. Risen from near-zero (1990) to 1.71 ± 0.40 PgC/yr (2025) — 4.3% of global emissions.

Self-sustaining: ≥ 2.8 PgC/yr

β · w₅ = 0.12

Carbon Buffer Capacity

Ocean carbonate buffer chemistry. Declining at 0.067 R-units/year — 2.5× the 1960–1990 rate. Projected to reach 14.0 by 2050.

Critical: ≤ 1/14.0 = 0.071

τ_soil · w₆ = 0.07

Soil Carbon Residence Time

Stability of terrestrial carbon reservoir. Calibrated against 71,000+ soil profiles from ISCN + FLUXNET eddy covariance network.

Net source: < 18 yr

E_anth · w₇ = 0.05

Anthropogenic Emission Factor

Direct human perturbation term. Annual country-level data from GCP + IEA spanning 65 years of continuous record (1960–2025).

Target: Net-zero by ~2050

Φ_q · w₈ = 0.03

Photosynthetic Quantum Yield

Biophysical solar-to-carbon efficiency. Derived from GOSAT and OCO-2 SIF retrievals. Declining globally at −0.9%/decade.

Severe stress: < 0.040

PCSI Decadal Evolution

From 0.31 to 0.78 —
65 years of acceleration

The PCSI has risen at an accelerating rate of 0.012 units/year — three times the 1960–1990 rate — driven by simultaneous intensification of three active positive feedback loops.

Decade	PCSI	G_atm (ppm/yr)	S_ocean (PgC/yr)	F_perma (PgC/yr)
1960–1970	0.31	0.90	−1.21	~0.0
1971–1980	0.38	1.28	−1.44	~0.0
1981–1990	0.43	1.51	−1.78	~0.01
1991–2000	0.49	1.63	−1.93	0.05
2001–2010	0.58	1.88	−2.24	0.31
2011–2020	0.68	2.19	−2.71	0.98
2021–2025	0.78	2.38	−3.08	1.71

Critical Findings

Three active
positive feedback loops

Key results from the 65-year analysis validate the PCSI framework and reveal findings with profound policy implications beyond the IPCC AR6 carbon budget estimates.

Permafrost Feedback

Arctic Thaw Acceleration

F_perma has risen from near-zero (1990) to 1.71 ± 0.40 PgC/yr (2025) — constituting 4.3% of global emissions. Abrupt thaw (thermokarst) contributes 31% of current F_perma despite covering only 5% of permafrost area.

1.71 PgC/yr · 2025

31% Abrupt thaw contribution

Ocean Buffer Chemistry

Revelle Factor Surge

Ocean buffer capacity declining at 0.067 R-units/year — 2.5× the 1960–1990 rate. Projected to reach 14.0 by 2050, reducing ocean uptake efficiency from 28% to approximately 18%.

12.4 Revelle Factor · 2025

−36% Buffer capacity loss

Biosphere Stress

Quantum Yield Decline

Global Φ_q declining at −0.9%/decade (2009–2025), with tropical ecosystems at −2.1%/decade. Even under aggressive net-zero scenarios, PCSI exceeds 0.85 by 2055 due to autonomous feedbacks contributing 2.5–4.0 PgC/yr through 2060.

−0.9% Per decade (global)

15–25 PgC Smaller budget vs AR6

Publications & Data

Open science,
open source

All code, datasets, PCSI projection ensembles, and supplementary materials are fully open-access and reproducible from the archived repository.

2026

Nature Climate Change · Submitted March 2026

CARBONICA: Advanced Planetary Carbon Accounting & Feedback Dynamics — A Multi-Parameter Earth System Science Framework for Real-Time Quantification of Global Carbon Cycle Dynamics, Sink Saturation, and Planetary Self-Regulation Thresholds

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18995446 ↗

PyPI

Python Package Index · Open Source

carbonica — Eight-parameter Earth system science framework for real-time carbon cycle quantification

pip install carbonica ↗

Data

Zenodo · CERN Data Centre · Open Access Archive

CARBONICA Dataset: Full PCSI parameter inversion archive (1960–2025) + 10,000-member Monte Carlo ensemble under SSP1-1.9 / SSP3-7.0 / SSP5-8.5 scenarios

Zenodo Archive ↗

CARBONICA

Weighing the Breathof the Earth

Every dimension ofEarth's carbon identity

From 0.31 to 0.78 —65 years of acceleration

Three activepositive feedback loops

Open science,open source

Access the full framework,live data, and open code

Weighing the Breath
of the Earth

Every dimension of
Earth's carbon identity

From 0.31 to 0.78 —
65 years of acceleration

Three active
positive feedback loops

Open science,
open source

Access the full framework,
live data, and open code